RFM segmentation, triggered push notifications, a “haven't ordered in 14 days” win-back campaign — how to turn one-time guests into regulars and measure LTV.
Why repeat sales are a restaurant’s most important KPI
The share of returning guests is a direct measure of business health. A restaurant at 30% repeat is a machine that constantly hunts for new guests and spends heavily to find them. A restaurant at 60% is a stable system that grows without raising its marketing budget.
Every 10-point increase in repeat share roughly doubles profit — because marketing costs go down and average LTV goes up.
RFM segmentation is the foundation
R (Recency) — how recently the guest last ordered. F (Frequency) — how often. M (Monetary) — how much they spend.
Split your base into 4 segments: Champions (frequent, recent, high spend), Loyal (frequent, recent), At Risk (lapsed), Hibernating (long lapsed). Each gets its own messaging.
Champions — thank-yous and exclusives. Loyal — motivation to move up. At Risk — a “come back” push. Hibernating — a big promo code to reactivate.
Trigger flows
- Push “It’s been 14 days — here’s 50,000 UZS in your account” — reactivates At Risk.
- Push “Your favorite dish is 30% off today” — to Champions with a favorite item in their history.
- Push “Your birthday is in 5 days — book a table at 20% off” — loyalty.
- Push “Come back — you haven’t ordered anything this month” — Hibernating, with a big promo.
- Email 24 hours after the first order: “How was it? Tell us in one word” — NPS + retention.
What to measure
- Repeat order rate (% of guests with 2+ orders in 30 days).
- Cohort retention: % of guests who return after 7, 14, 30, and 60 days.
- LTV by RFM segment.
- Churn rate: % of guests who leave after 1 order.
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